Wyniki wyszukiwania

Autor	Nazli Ceylan
Tytuł	Policy Assessment of Wheat Production in Turkey
Title	Policy Assessment of Wheat Production in Turkey
Słowa kluczowe	policy analysis matrix, wheat production, Turkey
Key words	policy analysis matrix, wheat production, Turkey
Abstrakt	Turkey plays a significant role in global wheat trade, importing wheat grain and exporting processed wheat products such as pasta, flour and biscuits. Wheat growing areas in Turkey have shown a decrease of about 10% over the last decade. Although an increase in yields keeps the production amount in balance, policies toward the wheat sector have reached a more critical point due to an increasing population and growing demand on the wheat flour sector. In this study, the profitability and sustainability of the sector were analyzed by using the Policy Analysis Matrix (PAM) approach, and by examining the effects of the policies that have been applied on the wheat market recently. According to the PAM results, domestic wheat prices are higher than world prices due to existing policies and the wheat sector is not competitive without support.
Abstract	Turkey plays a significant role in global wheat trade, importing wheat grain and exporting processed wheat products such as pasta, flour and biscuits. Wheat growing areas in Turkey have shown a decrease of about 10% over the last decade. Although an increase in yields keeps the production amount in balance, policies toward the wheat sector have reached a more critical point due to an increasing population and growing demand on the wheat flour sector. In this study, the profitability and sustainability of the sector were analyzed by using the Policy Analysis Matrix (PAM) approach, and by examining the effects of the policies that have been applied on the wheat market recently. According to the PAM results, domestic wheat prices are higher than world prices due to existing policies and the wheat sector is not competitive without support.
Cytowanie	Ceylan N. (2020) Policy Assessment of Wheat Production in Turkey.Zeszyty Naukowe SGGW w Warszawie - Problemy Rolnictwa Światowego, t. 20(35), z. 2: 4-11
HTML	wersja html
Pełny tekst	PRS_2020_T20(35)_n2_s4.pdf

Autor	Nazli Ceylan
Tytuł	Revealed Comparative Advantage of Turkish and Hungarian Wheat Sectors
Title	Revealed Comparative Advantage of Turkish and Hungarian Wheat Sectors
Słowa kluczowe	wheat sector, revealed comparative advantage, Hungary, Turkey
Key words	wheat sector, revealed comparative advantage, Hungary, Turkey
Abstrakt	Hungary and Turkey have a considerable share in world wheat markets. In 2018, Hungary’s export value of wheat and wheat flour reached to 411 million euros and it formed 32 per cent of overall cereal & milling industry export value of the country. Export value of Turkey for the same commodities was 875 million euros in the same period and it formed 77 per cent of total cereal & milling industry export value (International Trade Centre, 2019). Considering their potential and recent upward trends in trade, this study aims to determine the competitiveness of the wheat sectors in Hungary and Turkey. The study examines the competitiveness level of both countries by using Balassa’s Revealed Comparative Advantage index and Michaely index. The examination range covers the 10-year period between 2009 and 2018. Majority of data in this work was obtained and derived from International Trade Centre database. According to analysis results, Hungary has a higher degree of specialization vis-a-vis Turkey.
Abstract	Hungary and Turkey have a considerable share in world wheat markets. In 2018, Hungary’s export value of wheat and wheat flour reached to 411 million euros and it formed 32 per cent of overall cereal & milling industry export value of the country. Export value of Turkey for the same commodities was 875 million euros in the same period and it formed 77 per cent of total cereal & milling industry export value (International Trade Centre, 2019). Considering their potential and recent upward trends in trade, this study aims to determine the competitiveness of the wheat sectors in Hungary and Turkey. The study examines the competitiveness level of both countries by using Balassa’s Revealed Comparative Advantage index and Michaely index. The examination range covers the 10-year period between 2009 and 2018. Majority of data in this work was obtained and derived from International Trade Centre database. According to analysis results, Hungary has a higher degree of specialization vis-a-vis Turkey.
Cytowanie	Ceylan N. (2019) Revealed Comparative Advantage of Turkish and Hungarian Wheat Sectors.Zeszyty Naukowe SGGW w Warszawie - Problemy Rolnictwa Światowego, t. 19(34), z. 3: 16-22
HTML	wersja html
Pełny tekst	PRS_2019_T19(34)_n3_s16.pdf

Autor	Malgorzata Just
Tytuł	TRANSFER OF EXTREME RISK BETWEEN SELECTED EU WHEAT MARKETS
Title
Słowa kluczowe	spillover effect, Granger causality in risk, value at risk, wheat prices
Key words
Abstrakt	The aim of this study was to analyse the transfer of extreme price risk between selected EU milling wheat markets in the years 2005–2015. Extreme price risk (value at risk) was estimated using the ARMA-GARCH- -EVT models. In turn, the risk transfer phenomenon was identified using the Granger causality in risk test according to Cheung and Ng, the Granger test in relation to logarithmic price increments exceeding values at risk and the quotient of these increments and values at risk. Results of these tests indicate the effect of extreme price risk transfer on the EU milling wheat markets in the years 2005–2015. The market from which the risk was most frequently transferred was the wheat market in France, while the wheat markets in Poland and in Germany were those, onto which the risk was most frequently transferred.
Abstract
Cytowanie	Just M.
HTML	wersja html
Pełny tekst	ESARE_2018_n2_s216.pdf

Autor	Katarzyna Czech
Tytuł	Structural Changes in Wheat Market
Title
Słowa kluczowe
Key words	agricultural commodity, wheat market, structural breaks, Bai-Perron test
Abstrakt
Abstract	Time series analysis is based on the assumption of stationarity. Stationarity implies the parameters are constant over time. Structural break occurs when at least one of the parameters changes at some date. Structural breaks can lead to huge forecasting errors and unreliability of the model. Modelling structure breaks is very popular in the literature of macroeconomics and finance. However, there are still too few publications about structural breaks in agricultural market. The goal of research is to identify structural breaks in wheat prices time series. A few structural break tests are applied. It has been shown that there is at least one significant structural break in the analysed time series. Both Quandt-Andrews and Bai-Perron tests show that there is a significant breakpoint in 12.09.2007. The estimated break date is associated with the beginning of global financial crisis. It may imply that wheat prices have become more prone to changes in global financial market.
Cytowanie	Czech K. (2016) Structural Changes in Wheat Market.Zeszyty Naukowe SGGW w Warszawie - Problemy Rolnictwa Światowego, t. 16(31), z. 4: 92-98
HTML	wersja html
Pełny tekst	PRS_2016_T16(31)_n4_s92.pdf

Autor	Eduard Bukin, Andrii Skrypnyk, Mykola Talavyria
Tytuł	Wzrost gospodarek wchodzących: w kierunku rynków rolnych i stosunków handlowych. Niestabilność światowego rynku pszenicy na rynkach wschodzących
Title	The rise of the ‘emerging economies’: towards functioning agricultural markets and trade relations? World wheat market instability inspired by emerging markets
Słowa kluczowe	Dekompozycja zmienności produkcji; rynki wschodzące; zmienność plonów pszenicy zebranej z obszarów uprawy
Key words	Decomposition of production variation; emerging wheat market; wheat yields and harvested area variation
Abstrakt	Po rozpadzie ZSRR produkcja pszenicy na Ukrainie, w Kazachstanie i Rosji dostała impuls do ogromnego rozwoju. Byłe radzieckie republiki (FSR) z importerów netto pszenicy zamieniły się w eksporterów netto. Kraje te przyczyniły się do zwiększenia światowego handlu pszenicy, ale wywołały również ogromną zmienność na rynku globalnym. Wciąż nie wprowadzono zmian instytucjonalnych w FSR, które miałyby na celu zmniejszenie zmienności produkcji pszenicy. Wciąż identyfikacja kluczowych problemów w polityce tych państw pozostaje kwestią dyskusji. W artykule przedstawiono rozkład zmienności produkcji pszenicy na podstawie danych wejściowych/wyjściowych produkcji tych plonów w FSR. Metodologia przedstawiona w artykule pozwala zrozumieć i zmierzyć wpływ wybranych składników produkcji na ogół jej zmienności
Abstract	After the USSR decayed into independent countries, wheat production of Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Russia got impulse to tremendous development. The Former Soviet Republics (FSR) from net importers of wheat turned into the net exporters. However, instead of only increasing of global wheat trade, these countries induced enormous volatility to the global market. Regarding that, some institutional changes aimed to decrease variation of wheat production are still not introduced in the FSR. Thus, identifying of key problem in countries policy remains a discussion issue. This article presents production variation decomposition based on input/output data of wheat production in the FSR. Methodology, provided in the articles allows to understand and measure influences of production component on overall production variation
Cytowanie	Bukin E., Skrypnyk A., Talavyria M. (2015) Wzrost gospodarek wchodzących: w kierunku rynków rolnych i stosunków handlowych. Niestabilność światowego rynku pszenicy na rynkach wschodzących.Zarządzanie Finansami i Rachunkowość, nr 1: 47-62
HTML	wersja html
Pełny tekst	ZFIR_2015_n1_s47.pdf

Autor	Michał Jerzak
Tytuł	Towarowe instrumenty pochodne w zarządzaniu ryzykiem cenowym w rolnictwie
Title	Commodity derivatives in the price risk management in agriculture
Słowa kluczowe	instrumenty pochodne, ryzyko cenowe, zarządzanie ryzykiem, rynek pszenicy
Key words	derivatives, price risk, risk management, wheat market
Abstrakt	Celem opracowania jest wskazanie tendencji rozwojowych światowego rynku instrumentów pochodnych na towary rolne oraz przedstawienie możliwości i zasadności ich wykorzystania do stabilizowania dochodów gospodarstw rolnych funkcjonujących na polskim rynku rolnym. Za pomocą rachunku symulacyjnego przedstawiono potencjalne efekty ekonomiczne uzyskiwane w transakcjach zabezpieczających ceny sprzedaży pszenicy na rynku terminowym Euronext w Paryżu. W konkluzji zwrócono uwagę na dynamiczny rozwój towarowego rynku terminowego na świecie. Stwierdzono, że zabezpieczanie cen pszenicy produkowanej i sprzedawanej w Polsce przy użyciu kontraktów terminowych notowanych na zagranicznych rynkach terminowych jest trudne i mało efektywne.
Abstract	Increased volatility of agricultural commodity prices that could be observed in recent years resulted in greater exposure of market participants to price risk . The article pointed out the development trends of the global and European derivatives market for agricultural commodities . While the absence of a national commodity derivatives market, using a simulation account, also an analysis of the economic merits of using derivatives for agricultural commodities, offered by foreign commodity exchanges. The article presents the possible use of market instruments to stabilize prices, including commodity derivatives to manage price risk on farms in Poland. With the use simulation account the paper presents the potential economic effects obtained in hedging transactions sales price of wheat on the futures market of Euronext Paris . In conclusion attention was paid to the dynamic development of the freight futures market in the world. It was also found that hedging prices of wheat produced and sold in Poland with the use of futures contracts traded on foreign futures markets are inefficient and difficult
Cytowanie	Jerzak M. (2014) Towarowe instrumenty pochodne w zarządzaniu ryzykiem cenowym w rolnictwie.Roczniki Naukowe Ekonomii Rolnictwa i Rozwoju Obszarów Wiejskich, t. 101, z. 4: 78-84
HTML	wersja html
Pełny tekst	RNR_2014_n4_s78.pdf

Autor	Mariusz Hamulczuk
Tytuł	Dokładność długookresowych projekcji na rynku rolnym przykładzie modelu FAPRI i rynku pszenicy
Title	THE ACCURACY OF AGRICULTURAL BASELINE PROJECTIONS. EXAMPLE OF FAPRI MODEL AND THE WHEAT MARKET
Słowa kluczowe	projekcje, modele sektorowe, rynek pszenicy
Key words	projections, sectoral models, wheat market
Abstrakt	Jednym ze sposobów ograniczenia ryzyka i niepewności jest przewidywanie zjawisk. Wśród modeli, których projekcje mogą stanowić odniesienie do podejmowania decyzji przez uczestników rynku rolnego, jest model równowagi cząstkowej FAPRI. Celem opracowania jest próba oceny, w jakim stopniu projekcje bazowe formułowane za pomocą dużych modeli sektorowych są wiarygodnymi prognozami. Badaniu poddano wiarygodność projekcji modelu FAPRI na światowym i polskim rynku pszenicy. Wyniki badań pokazują, że projekcje FAPRI mogą stanowić alternatywę dla prognoz uzyskiwanych z wykorzystaniem innych modeli ilościowych.
Abstract	One of the ways of limitation of risk and uncertainty is forecasting of phenomena. Among the models whose results can be using as a decision guide is partial equilibrium model FAPRI. The purpose of elaboration is an attempt of assessment if baseline projections from big sectoral models can fulfill the role of reliable forecasts. The subject of research is reliability of the FAPRI model projections of world and polish wheat markets. Results of research show, that FAPRI projections can present alternative for forecasts obtained with utilization of other quantitative methods.
Cytowanie	Hamulczuk M. (2011) Dokładność długookresowych projekcji na rynku rolnym przykładzie modelu FAPRI i rynku pszenicy.Roczniki Nauk Rolniczych, Seria G, t. 98, z. 1: 47-59
HTML	wersja html
Pełny tekst	RNR_2011_n1_s47.pdf

Autor	Jacek Chotkowski, Jerzy Rembeza
Tytuł	Powiązanie cen produktów rolnych pomiędzy rynkiem polskim a rynkami UE
Title	Price linkages between Polish and EU agricultural markets
Słowa kluczowe
Key words	cointegration, agricultural prices
Abstrakt
Abstract	The purpose of this study is to provide evidence on the relationships between prices of some agricultural products in Poland, Germany and France. The study is based on monthly price series of wheat, barley and milk. Findings show an existence of causal relationships between investigated markets, especially wheat markets. Results for the period 1995-2000 generally tend to show a lower degree of price transmission compared to the period 2001-2005, as might be expected.
Cytowanie	Chotkowski J., Rembeza J. (2006) Powiązanie cen produktów rolnych pomiędzy rynkiem polskim a rynkami UE.Zeszyty Naukowe SGGW w Warszawie - Problemy Rolnictwa Światowego, t. 15, z. : 198-204
HTML	wersja html
Pełny tekst	PRS_2006_T15_n_s198.pdf