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Autor	Nazli Ceylan
Tytuł	Policy Assessment of Wheat Production in Turkey
Title	Policy Assessment of Wheat Production in Turkey
Słowa kluczowe	policy analysis matrix, wheat production, Turkey
Key words	policy analysis matrix, wheat production, Turkey
Abstrakt	Turkey plays a significant role in global wheat trade, importing wheat grain and exporting processed wheat products such as pasta, flour and biscuits. Wheat growing areas in Turkey have shown a decrease of about 10% over the last decade. Although an increase in yields keeps the production amount in balance, policies toward the wheat sector have reached a more critical point due to an increasing population and growing demand on the wheat flour sector. In this study, the profitability and sustainability of the sector were analyzed by using the Policy Analysis Matrix (PAM) approach, and by examining the effects of the policies that have been applied on the wheat market recently. According to the PAM results, domestic wheat prices are higher than world prices due to existing policies and the wheat sector is not competitive without support.
Abstract	Turkey plays a significant role in global wheat trade, importing wheat grain and exporting processed wheat products such as pasta, flour and biscuits. Wheat growing areas in Turkey have shown a decrease of about 10% over the last decade. Although an increase in yields keeps the production amount in balance, policies toward the wheat sector have reached a more critical point due to an increasing population and growing demand on the wheat flour sector. In this study, the profitability and sustainability of the sector were analyzed by using the Policy Analysis Matrix (PAM) approach, and by examining the effects of the policies that have been applied on the wheat market recently. According to the PAM results, domestic wheat prices are higher than world prices due to existing policies and the wheat sector is not competitive without support.
Cytowanie	Ceylan N. (2020) Policy Assessment of Wheat Production in Turkey.Zeszyty Naukowe SGGW w Warszawie - Problemy Rolnictwa Światowego, t. 20(35), z. 2: 4-11
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Pełny tekst	PRS_2020_T20(35)_n2_s4.pdf

Autor	Łukasz Pietrych
Tytuł	IDENTIFICATION OF THE (DETERMINISTIC OR RANDOM) NATURE OF THE WHEAT PRICE VARIABILITY WITH THE APPLICATION OF RECURRENCE QUANTIFICATION ANALYSIS
Title
Słowa kluczowe	deterministic chaos, recurrence quantification analysis, wheat prices
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Abstrakt	In this article performed was an analysis of the time series which presents the wheat price by means of recurrence quantification analysis. The main research problem was to ascertain whether the time series for this agricultural raw material may be considered as a system in which chaos has the deterministic nature, possibly with slight random disturbances. It was proved that it is justified to believe that the time series under analysis is characterized with the occurrence of deterministic chaos. The literature review led to believe that although this issue had been analysed in a large number of papers, most specialists confirm there is no conclusive evidence of chaos in economic or financial data.
Abstract
Cytowanie	Pietrych Ł.
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Pełny tekst	ESARE_2018_n2_s130.pdf

Autor	Malgorzata Just
Tytuł	TRANSFER OF EXTREME RISK BETWEEN SELECTED EU WHEAT MARKETS
Title
Słowa kluczowe	spillover effect, Granger causality in risk, value at risk, wheat prices
Key words
Abstrakt	The aim of this study was to analyse the transfer of extreme price risk between selected EU milling wheat markets in the years 2005–2015. Extreme price risk (value at risk) was estimated using the ARMA-GARCH- -EVT models. In turn, the risk transfer phenomenon was identified using the Granger causality in risk test according to Cheung and Ng, the Granger test in relation to logarithmic price increments exceeding values at risk and the quotient of these increments and values at risk. Results of these tests indicate the effect of extreme price risk transfer on the EU milling wheat markets in the years 2005–2015. The market from which the risk was most frequently transferred was the wheat market in France, while the wheat markets in Poland and in Germany were those, onto which the risk was most frequently transferred.
Abstract
Cytowanie	Just M.
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Pełny tekst	ESARE_2018_n2_s216.pdf

Autor	Katarzyna Czech
Tytuł	Structural Changes in Wheat Market
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Key words	agricultural commodity, wheat market, structural breaks, Bai-Perron test
Abstrakt
Abstract	Time series analysis is based on the assumption of stationarity. Stationarity implies the parameters are constant over time. Structural break occurs when at least one of the parameters changes at some date. Structural breaks can lead to huge forecasting errors and unreliability of the model. Modelling structure breaks is very popular in the literature of macroeconomics and finance. However, there are still too few publications about structural breaks in agricultural market. The goal of research is to identify structural breaks in wheat prices time series. A few structural break tests are applied. It has been shown that there is at least one significant structural break in the analysed time series. Both Quandt-Andrews and Bai-Perron tests show that there is a significant breakpoint in 12.09.2007. The estimated break date is associated with the beginning of global financial crisis. It may imply that wheat prices have become more prone to changes in global financial market.
Cytowanie	Czech K. (2016) Structural Changes in Wheat Market.Zeszyty Naukowe SGGW w Warszawie - Problemy Rolnictwa Światowego, t. 16(31), z. 4: 92-98
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Pełny tekst	PRS_2016_T16(31)_n4_s92.pdf

Autor	Mariusz Hamulczuk, Wiesław Łopaciuk
Tytuł	Price Linkage Between Milling and Feed Wheat Prices in Poland and Germany
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Abstract
Cytowanie	Hamulczuk M., Łopaciuk W. (2013) Price Linkage Between Milling and Feed Wheat Prices in Poland and Germany.Scientific Journal Warsaw University of Life Sciences SGGW - Problems of World Agriculture, t. 13(28), z. 4: 34-44
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Pełny tekst	PRS_2013_T13(28)_n4_s34.pdf

Autor	Mariusz Hamulczuk, Cezary Klimkowski
Tytuł	Powiązania między cenami ropy a cenami pszenicy w Polsce
Title	The Connection Between Crude Oil Prices And Polish Wheat Prices
Słowa kluczowe	ceny pszenicy, ceny ropy, analiza szeregów czasowych, biopaliwa
Key words	wheat prices, crude oil prices, time series analysis, biofuels
Abstrakt	Ceny surowców rolnych stanowią najważniejszy parametr podejmowania decyzji gospodarczych przez producentów rolnych, ponieważ bezpośrednio wpływają na dochody przez nich uzyskiwane. Stąd ważne jest poznawanie uwarunkowań ich zmienności. Wśród czynników, które wpływają na ceny zbóż coraz częściej wskazuje się na ceny ropy naftowej. Celem opracowania jest ocena powiązań między cenami ropy na rynkach światowych a cenami pszenicy w Polsce. Uzyskane wyniki potwierdziły opinie, że istnieje znaczny wpływ cen ropy na ceny pszenicy, przy tym charakter i siła tych związków ulega zmianom w czasie.
Abstract	Agricultural commodities’ prices play a crucial role in the process of farmers’ decision making. It is due to their direct impact on farmers’ income. It is important to explain the causes of changes of those prices. Among factors influencing wheat prices, crude oil prices are considered as one of the most important. The aim of this paper was an assessment of the connection between world crude oil prices and Polish wheat prices. The results of research confirm an existence of cause-effect of crude oil prices on wheat prices, although the nature and the strength of this relationship changes in time.
Cytowanie	Hamulczuk M., Klimkowski C. (2011) Powiązania między cenami ropy a cenami pszenicy w Polsce .Roczniki Nauk Rolniczych, Seria G, t. 98, z. 3: 176-190
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Pełny tekst	RNR_2011_n3_s176.pdf

Autor	Mariusz Hamulczuk
Tytuł	Zmienność cen pszenicy w Unii Europejskiej
Title	Wheat prices volatility in the European Union
Słowa kluczowe	ceny pszenicy, zmienność, ryzyko cenowe
Key words	wheat prices, volatility, price risk
Abstrakt	Obserwowany wzrost zmienności cen na światowych rynkach rolnych powoduje coraz większą ekspozycję na ryzyko cenowe wpływając na możliwość niezrealizowania pożądanego poziomu wartości funkcji celu podmiotów rynkowych. Celem opracowania była ocena zmienności cen pszenicy w wybranych krajach UE jako podstawy szacowania ryzyka cenowego. Przeprowadzone badania wskazują na występowanie różnic w zmienności, przy czym w znacznej części są one pochodną agregacji danych. Brak normalności rozkładów zmian stóp zwrotu cen wskazuje na duże prawdopodobieństwo pojawiania się obserwacji odstających. Zmienność cen pszenicy ma charakter warunkowy, co implikuje konieczność stosowania odpowiednich miar szacunków zmienności
Abstract	Observed increased volatility of world commodity prices causes an increase of risk exposure. Thus market participants can not achieve the desired value of their goal function. The aim of this research was an assessment of wheat prices volatility in selected EU member states. Results of the analysis indicate a dispersion of volatility among the analyzed countries which is to some extent caused by the data aggregation effect. Lack of normality of log returns of the price series indicates a high possibility of outliers’ existence. Volatility of wheat prices is conditional which implies a need of using special risk measures
Cytowanie	Hamulczuk M. (2011) Zmienność cen pszenicy w Unii Europejskiej.Zeszyty Naukowe SGGW w Warszawie - Problemy Rolnictwa Światowego, t. 11(26), z. 4: 77-88
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Pełny tekst	PRS_2011_T11(26)_n4_s77.pdf