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Autor	Joanna Olbryś
Tytuł	Własności estymatorów miar ryzyka Expected ShortFall (ES) oraz Valueat- RISK (VaR)
Title	Properties of estimators of risk measures Expected Shortfall (ES) and Value– at-Risk (VaR)
Słowa kluczowe	estymator miary ryzyka, Value-at-Risk, Expected Shortfall, Otwarte Fundusze Inwestycyjne
Key words	Risk Measure Estimator, Value-at-Risk, Expected Shortfall, Open-end Investment Funds
Abstrakt	Koncepcja wartości zagrożonej Value-at-Risk pojawiła się w 1994r. Obecnie VaR jest najbardziej popularną wśród praktyków miarą ryzyka, zalecaną np. przez Basel Commitee on Banking Supervision. Niestety, nie jest miarą subaddytywną, co może prowadzić do zaburzeń w ocenie ryzyka portfeli zdywersyfikowanych. Jako alternatywę w stosunku do VaR można stosować spójną miarę ryzyka Expected Shortfall (ES). Celem artykułu jest zaprezentowanie własności estymatorów wartości zagrożonej Value-at-Risk (VaRa ) i miary Expected Shortfall ( ESa ) oraz wpływu tych własności na wielkość pomiaru ryzyka na przykładzie jednostek wybranych otwartych funduszy inwestycyjnych na rynku polskim
Abstract	Concept of Value-at-Risk appears in 1994. Nowadays VaR is the most popular risk measure. Unfortunately, it fails to reward diversification, as it is not subadditive. In the search for a suitable alternative to VaR, Expected Shortfall (ES) has been characterized as the smallest coherent risk measure to dominate VaR. The aim of this paper is a presentation of the Expected Shortfall and Value-at-Risk estimators properties and an application of ES and VaR estimators to risk estimate examples on the Polish Open-end Investment Funds market. The paper also offers a comparison of ES and VaR estimators as the risk measures.
Cytowanie	Olbryś J. (2006) Własności estymatorów miar ryzyka Expected ShortFall (ES) oraz Valueat- RISK (VaR).Zeszyty Naukowe SGGW - Ekonomika i Organizacja Gospodarki Żywnościowej, nr 60: 269-277
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Pełny tekst	EIOGZ_2006_n60_s269.pdf

Autor	Dominik Krężołek, Grażyna Trzpiot
Tytuł	Statytstyczna weryfikacja modelu CAMP na przykładzie polskiego rynku kapitałowego
Title	The statistical verification of the CAPM in the polish capital market
Słowa kluczowe	CAPM, współczynnik beta, metoda najmniejszych kwadratów (MNK), równanie regresji, model korelacji krzyżowej
Key words	CAPM, beta coefficient, the Ordinary Least Square (OLS), the crosssectional regression model
Abstrakt	Poniższa praca prezentuje testy badające zasadność stosowania modelu wyceny aktywów kapitałowych CAPM w przypadku Giełdy Papierów Wartościowych w Warszawie SA. Wykorzystano dwa podejścia do testowania modelu: tradycyjne (zaproponowane przez Fama i MacBeth) oraz warunkowe (zaproponowane przez Pettengill, Sundaram oraz Matur). Podejście warunkowe zawiera dodatkowo test średnio dodatnich nadwyżek rynkowych oraz test symetryczności zależności ryzyko – dochód w okresach dodatnich i ujemnych nadwyżek rynkowych. Weryfikację modelu przeprowadzono dla dziennych logarytmicznych stóp zwrotu z akcji 92 spółek notowanych na GPW w okresie styczeń 2000 – grudzień 2005
Abstract	This paper presents some tests of validity of CAPM using data from the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE). Two approaches are presented: the traditional approach (proposed by Fama and MacBeth) and conditional approach (proposed by Pettengill, Sundaram and Mathur). The conditional approach contains additionally two tests: first one, that the excess market returns are, on average, positive and second one – that the risk – return relationship is symmetrical between periods of positive and negative excess market returns. To test the assumptions of CAPM the daily log-returns of 92 stocks listed in the WSE for the period January 2000 to December 2005 are used in this study
Cytowanie	Krężołek D., Trzpiot G. (2006) Statytstyczna weryfikacja modelu CAMP na przykładzie polskiego rynku kapitałowego.Zeszyty Naukowe SGGW - Ekonomika i Organizacja Gospodarki Żywnościowej, nr 60: 341-351
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Pełny tekst	EIOGZ_2006_n60_s341.pdf

Autor	Ewa Krawczyk
Tytuł	Zastosowanie modelu ryzyka Value at Risk (VaR) opartego na metodzie Monte Carlo do rynku nieruchomości
Title	Using Value at Risk (VaR) Model Based on Monte Carlo Method on Property Market
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Abstract	Value at Risk – the method emerged several years ago that measures potential loss at a given confidence level. The method is undergoing continous improvment, finding new use in financial institutions. Investment briefcase management is inseparably connected with risk mamagement – process succured today with risk models. Presented attempt of enforcing specialized tool for measuring defined risk for separeted risk on property market analysis gives following remarks: 1. In the situation of considerable growth of investition on property market, which is financed mainly from bank infestations, there is need to make out risk models which describes market segment behaviour and let to limit possible loss. The loss caused by overoptimistic predictions and wrong costeffectiveness calculation. 2. Well-known and used at financial market risk models are great tools to connect both segments of market – financial and objective – and for empiric verification including investment projects. 3. VaR model may be used for the needs of defined risk of separeted investment project, which is characterized by indicator of profitability (NP), but obtained results should be treatened with limited confidence
Cytowanie	Krawczyk E. (2006) Zastosowanie modelu ryzyka Value at Risk (VaR) opartego na metodzie Monte Carlo do rynku nieruchomości.Zeszyty Naukowe SGGW - Ekonomika i Organizacja Gospodarki Żywnościowej, nr 58: 117-133
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Pełny tekst	EIOGZ_2006_n58_s117.pdf

Autor	Ewa Krawczyk
Tytuł	Zastosowanie metody kowariancji do określenia ryzyka na rynku nieruchomości komercyjnych
Title	Application of Covariance Method for Risk Assessing on the Commercial Real Estate Market
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Abstract	The Value at Risk model allows answering the base question asked by investor. How much money could be lost with given financial resources involved into given project, in fixed time and fixed risk preference The covariance method used to estimate VaR is static model, but analytic manner of computing allows, after essential analysis, to determine value at risk relatively clearly and quickly. Presented attempt of initiating tool to analyzing quantified risk of investment on real estate market, specialized for capital market, gives observations: a) in the situation of significant growth of investments on real estate market, financed mainly by banking institutions, there is necessity to work out risk models for this market segment, allowing to limit excessive losses caused by too optimistic prices and inappropriate calculations of the effectiveness of the investment, b) well known and used risk models for capital market are basics for connection the both market segments - capital and real - and empirical verification, including investing projects, c) VaR model can be used for determining quantified risk of an investing project, characterized by profitability ratio Net Present Value, but received results should be treated with limited confidence.
Cytowanie	Krawczyk E. (2005) Zastosowanie metody kowariancji do określenia ryzyka na rynku nieruchomości komercyjnych.Zeszyty Naukowe SGGW - Ekonomika i Organizacja Gospodarki Żywnościowej, nr 55: 127-148
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Pełny tekst	EIOGZ_2005_n55_s127.pdf

Autor	Ewa Drabik, Anna Górska
Tytuł	Ocena inwestycji na Warszawskiej Giełdzie Towarowej w okresie od stycznia 2002 roku do lipca 2004 roku
Title	The Evaluation of lnvestments at the Warsaw Commodity Exchange from January 2002 to July 2004
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Abstract	Nowadays the commodity exchange offers not only a wide range of operations such as trade in commodities but also future contracts and other types of financial transactions. While at the stock exchange one can encounter mainly shares, the commodity exchange epitomizes an impressive variety of negotiable units. Mutual funds and deposits, which are an alternative way of investing, also play a relevant role on the financial market. From economical point of view deposits are burdened with the smallest risk. According to the modem financial theory, the attitude towards a risk is considered as a very important aspect of the situation on the market. Not only behaviour of the investors but also political and economical events determine the situation on the market. The. behaviour of the investors is analysed by the cognitive psychology, which is associated with a new behavioural current in financial theory, which is called the behaviour finance. The aim of this paper is to check, if it is worth to invest at the commodity exchange. The analysis is carried out on the basis of the data from Warsaw Commodity Exchange in the span of3 years: 2002-2004.
Cytowanie	Drabik E., Górska A. (2004) Ocena inwestycji na Warszawskiej Giełdzie Towarowej w okresie od stycznia 2002 roku do lipca 2004 roku.Zeszyty Naukowe SGGW - Ekonomika i Organizacja Gospodarki Żywnościowej, nr 54: 89-99
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Pełny tekst	EIOGZ_2004_n54_s89.pdf

Autor	Grzegorz Koszela
Tytuł	Analiza portfela rynkowego
Title	The Analysis of Market Portfolio
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Abstract	Specialist bibliography offers an equation of the CML, but no formulae for market portfolio' s risk and return. It is connected with the omission of the equation of hyperbola, illustrating the interdependence between risk and return of a two-element portfolio. Co-ordinates of point C are the key for the selection of a portfolio with a predetermined risk of return from a ·CML. This paper fills in this gap. The paper also illustrates an issue of the short sale. Problems with the application of the above theory to multi-element portfolios consist in the fact that, starting from three-element portfolio, three is no clear equivalent of the equation determining the relation between return and risk. In a market portfolio the fundamental importance is attached to an adequate tangent to the hyperbola, its equation, and a point of tangency with the hyperbola. It means that it is impossible to apply the problem to the case of a portfolio assembled of a range of stocks (at least three) and one kind of bonds. Modifying the notion of a market portfolio by introducing a new notion of the so-called arbitrarily small risk portfolio, the author of this paper has achieved the possibility of a uniform characterization of portfolios assembled from any number of elements. A paper on the subject is prepared for publication.
Cytowanie	Koszela G. (2004) Analiza portfela rynkowego.Zeszyty Naukowe SGGW - Ekonomika i Organizacja Gospodarki Żywnościowej, nr 52: 119-129
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Pełny tekst	EIOGZ_2004_n52_s119.pdf