MACROECONOMIC STABILITY AND SOCIAL PROGRESS IN THE EU MEMBER STATES AND UKRAINE
Annals of Marketing Management and Economics, 2018, vol.4, nr 1, s. 53-64
The main purpose of the study is the role and influence of social factors on macroeconomic stability. The research is based on the hypothesis that countries with greater macroeconomic stability achieve greater social progress. The integrated index of human capital is proposed as a target for the construction of an appropriate system for monitoring social progress, and in the future – identifying the impact on macroeconomic stability. The main stages of estimating the integral index of human capital are: identification of relevant indicators that will form each of the sub-indices; filtering the selected indicators in the previous stage based on the analysis of the correlation matrix of each of the subindices; normalization of indicators in each of the subindices, calculation of the integral index for each of the subindices, calculation of the final integral index of human capital. The calculations of the integrated capital human capital index for some of the EU countries (Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Croatia, Romania) and Ukraine for the period 2000–2015 allowed us to conclude that Romania and Ukraine were on a marginal level of social progress, while Lithuania, Poland and Croatia in the range of moderate level. The use of the OLS (the least squares) method to determine the significance of changes in social progress to macroeconomic stability has revealed a positive and statistically significant impact of social progress on macroeconomic stability.