Zastosowanie analizy wrażliwości do oceny ryzyka opłacalności budowy i eksploatacji informatycznego katastru nieruchomości

Abstract

Results of the analysis of building and implementation of the cadastre communications system effectiveness’ risk, quantified by NPV algorithm, clearly justifies introducing two models of assumed costs identified as a risk factor. Indirect methods used for risk measuring, based on the basis scenario of the most possible costs of communications infrastructure confirmed meeting the positive criterion based on NPV algorithm. Both sensitivity ratio model and relative and absolute margin of safety permit large elasticity in the scope of shaping costs of communications infrastructure leaving reserve exceeding 50% increase from values implemented in forecasts. The limit of profitability, quantified by condition of NPV < 0, is raising these costs to the amount of 169 409 351 PLN per year (totally during nine years to the amount of 1 524 684 159 PLN).